By Jan Qarabaghi

Following the collapse of the Taliban, the world opinion about the future of Afghanistan clustered around two conflicting views: Those recounting the lessons of Afghan history and the trappings of its political complexities expressed the fear that Afghanistan will soon morph into a perilous military quagmire and drown the invading American GIs, a fate many other invading forces had encountered in that country in the past. Call this the pessimistic view. On the other side of the opinion-divide, which we may call the optimistic view, stood those who were confident of the American political will and sense of moral obligation in matters related to foreign policy. This camp saw a window of opportunity for the downtrodden Afghans, who could use American money, technology, and moral leadership to put an end to their miseries of the last twenty-five years and begin a process of national healing.

Over two years have past since the day the U.S. and its allies entrusted the bloodstained throne of Kabul to their handpicked regent Hamid Karzai. So far, neither of the two opposing prophecies has come true, at least not in the shape and form originally publicized. No quagmire has materialized: Afghanistan is, relatively speaking, calm and safe for U.S. and ISAF forces; and no healing has taken place or even started: Afghanistan is still bleeding and suffering.

What has come true, however, is a third reality, a reality where the two exclusive prophecies have merged, giving rise to a surreal state: Afghanistan has not become a military quagmire; yet, it has turned into a financial quagmire or black hole where billions of dollars and innumerable promises made to the Afghan people continue to disappear. Afghanistan has not become a happy, liberated land; yet, it has entered the debilitating state of legalized plunder, corruption and bribery. In today’s Afghanistan, political expediency, deal making, deception, theft, lies, and broken promises stain the lives of over 25 million men, women, and children.

In the 28 months that have passed between today and October 7, 2001, the day the first American bombs fell on the Afghan soil, the U.S. and its allies have spent over $25 billion in military, intelligence, humanitarian, and reconstruction efforts. Despite this oft-cited “generosity,” very few, if any, of the promises of the ‘Marshall Plan for Afghanistan’ have materialized: Warlords rule the country, thanks to the continuing support and recognition they receive from the U.S. and ISAF forces; the U.N. complains that one-third of the country’s territory is out of reach for the badly-needed reconstruction and humanitarian aid; none of the roads of the country is safe for trade and travel; arbitrary killing, imprisonment, and kidnapping of innocent people and political opponents are order of the day in large parts of the country; corruption, nepotism, favoritism, abuse of power, and extortion are common practices in the government; property rights of the Afghan people are trampled on a daily basis; women’s rights remain an empty slogan written on paper carefully kept within the walls of the presidential palace; religious extremism is well and thriving in deeds and speeches of fundamentalists like R. Sayaf, B. Rabani, and H. Shinwari; the drug economy is booming and enriching relatives and cronies of dominant cabinet members Fahim, Qanooni, Abdullah, Dostum, Mohaqiq, and Khalili, to name just a few; and last but not least, democracy and pluralism are no where in sight, while talk of the soon-to-be-held, stage-managed elections fills the ears of a long-disfranchised people who have lived, and continue to live, under the constant fear of warlords and their militiamen.

In spite of this abysmal state, there are few complaints or signs of revolt by the people of Afghanistan. It seems justified to ask: What is it that keeps the Afghans from complaining and revolt? Two factors come to mind: (a) the threat of American B52s and Black-Hawks that continue to pound Afghan villages, and (b) the palliative effect of the kleptomania that has taken over the country. To avoid death, people keep their thoughts to themselves; and to survive economic deprivation, people take part in the kleptomania imposed on the country. Public interest is no more an issue. What is the issue is how to get a share of the booty.