It Takes Two to Tango

But the Two Need More to Tango Well

During the eventful elections of the year 2000, few Americans could have imagined that the fate of their country’s next presidential elections would likely depend on electioneering in a faraway, forgotten land called Afghanistan. Today, after four years of dramatic events in the U.S. and around the world, this outlandish possibility has become close to a reality. With his job-approval ratings at a trough, it seems that President George W. Bush is in dire need of a foreign-policy success story. With success in Iraq elusive and uncertain, Mr. Bush is looking at Afghanistan as a second-best and cheaper alternative to be presented to American voters and the world at large. This faraway and forgotten land is supposed to serve in the mysterious world of public relations as a groundbreaking political melodrama with a resounding and happy ending.

It is for this purpose in mind that Mr. Bush has invited Hamed Karzai, the pampered, albeit dismally incompetent, favorite of U.S. foreign policy establishment to Georgia, where he will be packaged and presented to the leaders of the G-8 as the man who is gallantly leading Afghanistan toward peace, democracy, and prosperity. Karzai is supposed to serve at the G-8 summit as a shining role model of a new breed of leaders America wants to help to take charge of the maleficent Islamic countries. Karzai’s appearance in the G-8 summit will also be painted as an example of U.S. commitment to free elections and democracy in formerly failed states, that is, once they have been resuscitated by the U.S. military might.

As far as Karzai is concerned, there are a number of good reasons for him to dutifully follow the script prepared for his trip to Georgia by his in-home boss Zalmai Khalilzad, the Afghan-born American Ambassador in Kabul, and Karzai’s former colleague at Unocal. First, Karzai owes his appointment to the thrown of Kabul to President Bush; thus, he feels obliged to help his benefactor in this time of hardship. Second, by rubbing shoulders with the leaders of the G-8 in Georgia, Karzai will be sending signals to his opponents at home and critics abroad to take notice of the support and friendship he enjoys among the mighty countries of the world. And third, while having the leaders of all eight powerful countries of the world under the same roof, Karzai hopes to press, with ample support from Mr. Bush, for more foreign troops and money for his embattled and fractured administration. The occasion saves him time and effort.

Thus President Bush and Hamed Karzai need to reinforce each other in Georgia. One man will begin the sentence, the other will be asked to end it. As partners in a U.S. foreign-policy dance, the two men need to be in lockstep: It takes two to tango not only on the floor of a dance function but also in the treacherous arena of politics.

Therefore, the two men in Georgia will ignore each other’s failings and forget each other’s broken promises. Nothing will come out about the waste of billions of U.S. taxpayers’ money in the hands of Karzai and his unscrupulous ministers, and their NGOs. Nothing will be said about the rising insecurity and the breakdown of law and order all over Afghanistan, except Kabul which is protected by the ISAF. No mention will be made of the crimes committed by the warlords and their threat to fair and free elections. No serious discussion will take place about the rising criminalization of the Afghan economy and the deadly business of drug production and trafficking. No account will be given of Karzai’s lies about being the leader of disenfranchised Pashtuns who still face murder, torture, discrimination, and exile in the hands of Atta, Dostum, Dawood, and Khalili in the North. No word of truth will be spoken about the dangers that threaten the life and safety of Afghans prior and during the upcoming elections. The world will only hear about imaginary successes, not about the actual failures.

The Bush-Karzai show of achievement and solidarity in Georgia, the way it has been written on paper, sounds well and promising to those who are playing the roles. Nevertheless, beyond the scripted play, in the real world, the show faces two significant problems: First, the non-American G-8 leaders who gather in Georgia are not dummies. These leaders will politely listen to the scripted text and watch the show unfold. Will they believe what they are asked to believe about the successes of the Afghan enterprise? The answer depends on what these leaders have heard about the case from their own sources of information, i.e., their foreign ministries and military and intelligence sources. Unfortunately, what these leaders hear about the Afghan situation from their own sources diametrically diverges from what they will hear at the summit. This problem can severely damage the two men’s credibility and reputation.

The second problem threatening the show of achievement in Georgia is the disarray that has taken over the election process in Afghanistan. According to latest U.N. accounts, since December 2003, of the over 10.5 million people who are eligible to vote only 2.4 million have been registered. In the North, where voter registration has been more successful than in the south and east, only 280,000 people have registered, 200,000 of them in Mazar-e Sharif. In the southern and eastern parts of the country, registration workers have become target of daily terrorist attacks. The flow of foreign money that was supposed to pay for registration and election costs has virtually stopped. Warlords have meddled in the registration process, making sure that their supporters receive the highest number of registration cards, in many cases multiple cards. Women have been threatened and prevented from receiving electoral cards. A large number of Mullahs and commanders have declared elections un-Islamic and thus have created confusion about the legitimacy of the elections. The elections’ law that was passed by Karzai’s fractured cabinet after months of bickering and delay has been assailed by important political players as undemocratic and biased toward current power holders. And finally, Karzai who initially presented himself as someone above routine party politics, and once was thought to be the only serious contender for the post of presidency, faces increasing challenge by new contenders, and is under overwhelming pressure to engage in illegitimate deal-making with the Jehadi leaders who are considered by the majority of the Afghan population as corrupt, self-seeking, and untrustworthy.

In such an environment, the fate of presidential and parliamentary elections in Afghanistan is not known. Rumors have surfaced already that both presidential and parliamentary elections are going to be postponed once more from September to December of this year, or even later. With such an uncertainty surrounding the Afghan elections, they can hardly serve the purpose they are designed to serve in Georgia and beyond: to show the world and the American voters that the democracy-project, launched in Afghanistan by the Bush administration after the tragic events of September eleven, is succeeding. It seems that the two men embracing each other in Georgia can indeed tango. But what if they tango to the tune of the wrong song? They fail to win the contest. To win the contest, the two should not only know how to tango, but they should also tango to the tune of the right music (truth). © Qarabaghi/Afghan Observer 2004.